Despite mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore having abandoned their plans to merge, BMI – a Fitch Solutions Company – says it still expects robust merger and acquisition (M&A) momentum in the sector to continue well into this year, underpinned by the industry’s pivot towards repositioning portfolios for future-facing minerals.

On February 5, Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned their merger plans, ending negotiations that had followed initial talks in January and which would have created the world’s largest mining company, leapfrogging BHP, according to BMI.

Just days before the deadline, on February 3, Glencore also agreed to sell a 40% stake in its flagship copper and cobalt assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo to the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium.

As with other prominent mining deals that have stalled, BMI says the Rio-Glencore merger setback underscores the challenges of executing large-scale transactions within the sector, despite supportive long-term market fundamentals.

“That said, we still expect broader industry players to continue pursuing M&A opportunities in 2026, prioritising assets that strengthen their exposure to minerals essential for the energy transition, including – but not limited to – copper, lithium and rare earths.”

BMI posits that the Rio-Glencore impasse echoes BHP’s failed pursuit of Anglo American in 2024, after which the latter paired with Teck Resources in September 2025 in a move to establish a copper mining powerhouse.

BMI points out that the Anglo-Teck merger, one of the largest mining transactions of its kind, is progressing, with Anglo American and Teck Resources having secured shareholder approval for the merger of equals, as well as regulatory approval from the government of Canada under the Investment Canada Act.

Recent megamerger deals continue to centre on critical minerals, with copper at the heart of some of the largest bids, BMI notes.

Notably, for Rio Tinto, BMI says a combination with Glencore would have reduced its reliance on iron-ore, while for Glencore, the merger could have enhanced the valuation of its copper assets and fundamentally reduced its exposure to coal, with copper the commodity having driven both companies’ appetite for consolidation.

“The officially cited value gap, disagreement over ownership structure, Glencore’s coal assets, as well as differences in corporate culture, ultimately proved too great to bridge at this time,” the company notes.

“That said, as we outlined in December 2025, we believe robust M&A momentum in the metals and mining sector will persist into 2026, with critical minerals remaining a key focus for industry players.”

BMI says major miners are poised to pursue strategic acquisitions to bolster their portfolios and capture synergies, positioning themselves to capitalise on the accelerating race for critical minerals.

With markets for these minerals expected to tip into deficit over the coming decade, ongoing industry consolidation is likely only to gain pace as securing strong positions within the energy transition sector increasingly dominates the strategic rationale behind the metals and mining merger and acquisition narrative, it notes.

Regarding Rio Tinto and Glencore, BMI explains that the former completed the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium in March 2025, elevating Rio Tinto to the upper echelons of the global lithium market.

Additionally, BMI points out that Glencore announced a strategy to reach 1.6-million tonnes of copper production by 2035, aiming to position itself as the world’s largest copper producer, exemplifying the broader sector’s interest in transition metals and the drive to benefit from the impending supply gap in minerals and metals essential to the green transition.

The rush to secure world-class copper assets also comes amid strong upward momentum across the critical minerals sector, with copper firmly back in the spotlight after touching multiple all-time highs at the start of this year.

BMI says copper producers are enjoying a rare alignment of market tailwinds, as elevated prices, historically low copper treatment and refining charges, and record gold and silver prices boosting by-product credits are propelling copper margins.

“Along with supply gap opportunities, the optimism around elevated commodity prices, and copper, in particular, is likely to act as another well-known incentive to buttress the deal activity among major players in the sector.”